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And what are we doing about it? Markets in Everything.

November 29, 2012

Meanwhile, in the replication project, some of the more economics-minded participants set up a prediction market for the hypotheses.  You can read about it here.

I participated. We were given 10 000 points (I’m not a betting person, unless it is imaginary money) and a list of hypotheses that were under replication, and asked to judge yeah or nay on whether we thought they would replicate, and put our mouths where our beliefs was. Everybody participating were scientists recruited through the project, so we were knowledgeable traders (I feel so wall street now).  I started out among the top 10, but ended up on 14th place, up some 1000 points (from the original 10000 I placed). A lot of fun seeing also how the beliefs in some hypotheses rose, and others fell.  I got out of a few trades (too much in the red, not enough faith I knew what I was betting on), but stuck to a couple (one short, one long – in other words, one I thought would not pan out, and one I thought would).  I just thought the market was WRONG. We’ll see.  I’ll return with more on this as the actual replications come in.

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From → Replication

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